Friday, November 21, 2008

American: why it did and still matters?

In short, American’s influence to the rest of the world is not simply coming from its forces, and moral model (which not many people buy it except themselves). It’s because Americans BUY from other economies -- they are the biggest customer of nearly any other major economy and hence who make their product and service in American’s term, gets most business. That’s why US is still the lead, despite the dire desperation of Europe, Asia and Americans (i.e. France, Iran, Venezuela) leader to declare US’s collapse.


As the 2008 economic down turn was reported as led by American, the argument of collapse of USA is well back alive.

Well I think it was half truth, half bragging when Americans said American led the world into recession. It's true that American got in to recession first, but did American invaded Europe to force Europe go into recession? However, it’s true that when my customers (the biggest ones) suffer, my business suffers.

Of course when the self-esteem drives Americans to proclaim themselves the leader of everything, including recession, European and Asian are for once, happy to cede this battle of "leader".

Real truth is (not to offend European and Asian leaders), if American is not the leader, and every single other country was so good in managing their own growth without "lead" of American, why the recession affected you so much?

I've read so many articles claiming American secretly staged currency war to steal wealth from Japan to China; some claims American secretly stage currency war to undermine Europe or Oil export countries. All maybe true, except one thing, seldom the trick needed for any of these objectives are inline with one another (i.e. USD needs to appreciate to undermine Euro, while it needs depreciate to undermine China).

One wide spread idea is US “forced” Oil export countries to accept USD so to steal wealth from everyone who purchase Oil. A similar claim by handful Chinese economists made similar accusation of American purchase Chinese goods, let Chinese purchase their bond, then depress USD to steal wealth from China.

However, what they failed to say is American buys most Oil, and is the biggest buyer of goods from China. If you have to accept one type of payment, whose currency will you accept? Your biggest customers’ or the smallest? OK mystery solved. Americans do not need to force OPEC or China, India to accept USD, being their biggest customer, the export countries are more than happy to accept USD and ship goods (at least on the negotiation table, they may complain after the money is secured in their bank account).

In short, every country has their own interests to care, and if US does not pay too much attention to whatever a foreign country think is best for their interest, that’s why these foreign countries have their own government.

Another example is during Crude Oil crisis, Euro was appreciating significantly so that the Crude price increased affected Euro-zone much less than it affected US (because Oil is priced in USD, Euro can benefit from high Euro which values USD and Oil lower when Oil price in USD is very high). However, some European economists blamed US in forcing Euro to appreciate to undermine Europe’s export. Yeah, when Oil price falls, and Euro falls, some European economists blame US in undermining Euro’s value to undermine Europe. They are the one to blame no matter what.

Blaming other country “not taking care of me” is nothing short of self-centric selfishness. It is also a less obvious way of saying “I shall be led by thee”, although in a crying foul way.

Don’ get me wrong, I’m not saying US is good. Given the way they are burning their own and other’s money, I don’t know how long can they spend like this. And when they can’t anymore, it will really “lead” the whole world into deep depression as I guess no one else has the power and willingness to spend like that any more.

All in all, Americans are stupid in spending money they don’t have. However, the rest of the world is so much influenced by US, not because they force you (well they do enjoy being the “leader”), it is because they spend and the rest of the world gets paid.

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