Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Canada Heading for recession?!

Like it or not, the Canadians are racing the Americans for an election.
Canadians are likely going to poll on Oct 14th, beating America's November schedule for a vote.

As Liberal leader Stephen Dion suggested, the Canadian conservative government wanted an election now because the economy is heading south (following the lead of its southern neighbor). So if the conservative stick on to its preset election date (Oct 2009, they even passed a law for that), they may face a much tougher election environment.

Statistics show that governments rarely got re-elected during economy recessions. While it's not always the incumbents fault, during economy downturn, people wants to change. Not necessarily mean they suddenly knew what they want, just like on a gambling table, even changing chairs would be tried when loosing money.

So, even if it's not a great strategy for the Tories, probably better than wait till next year - the problem is even if they can form another minority government, the oppositions can still trigger an election on the worst month of the Canadian economy, so it's just a waste of tax payer's money.
Don't argue oppositions won't dare the Canadian for a second vote in a year, with 3 oppositions share the blame game, it won't be too hard for them to pull the trigger (again).

What interesting is the the firmness on the governing party's push for an election, it seems that they are very sure the recession is coming, so sure that they'd rather risk being blamed for triggering an election, for defying their own legislation on fixed election day, for the risk that they may become opposition again. . .

So much so the resilience of Canadian economy.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work.